Polling from earlier this year showed African American voters were not just cooling on President Joe Biden but deserting him for Donald Trump. Black voters were a major contributor to Biden’s razor thin margins in swing states such as the Peach State and lower Black voter turnout would have been detrimental to Biden in battleground states. Losing those votes to Trump would have been devastating.
But that is exactly what polls showed happening.
Biden’s support among Black likely voters was down to 76%, an 11-point drop from 2020. Nationwide, Biden had lost ground on his handling of inflation, his empathy, and other core issues, especially among young Black voters.
While Biden struggled to gin up excitement, Trump was actively recruiting Black voters to his team.
“President Trump’s outreach to minority voters is straightforward: he shows up, listens, and makes it clear that we’ll be better off with him as President, just like we were four years ago,” said Janiyah Thomas, the Trump campaign’s Black media director.
As President, Trump addressed issues that resonate with the Black community including signing the First Step Act which addressed criminal justice reform on a federal level. Trump also took federal action to support historically black colleges and universities, and focused on federal policing reforms that reduced crime in Black communities.
Nationally, Republican outreach was working. Organizations such as the Black Conservative Foundation and their “Black Men Matter” campaign have focused on long-term strategies including mentorship along with a commitment to spend $2.5 million for voter engagement in Black communities.
In Georgia, the fragile alliance that gave Biden a 12,000 win in 2020 was coming apart at the seams. Republicans saw an even stronger opportunity to peel off young Black voters.
“Young Black men are more likely to say that they will vote for Trump,” said Ranada Robinson, a researcher for the New Georgia Project. “But, what I am most concerned about this year is that about 30% was undecided at the time of our poll.”
Trump’s controversial felony conviction in New York as well as his use of Black surrogates such as Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) touch on issues that resonate with Black Georgians who see the injustices of the judicial system and see hope in Scott’s Sharecropper-to-Senator biography.
Pew Research Center polling shows 18% of Black voters would vote for President Trump if the election were held against President Biden.
But President Biden is no longer on the ticket. After withdrawing from the race in July, Biden has been replaced at the top of the ticket with his Vice President Kamala Harris. In a most recent poll, Harris is only showing slightly better amongst Black voters – pulling in 80% of their support.
With 39 days to go until election day, which candidate will carry Georgia, is still up in the air.
